Analysts have been making some bizarre predictions about Jobs’ Mobs forthcoming iPad rip-off.
While some have been insisting that the gizmo will be a success, others are not so sure.
In fact the predictions are so different that one can only reach the conclusion that the analysts have not really got a clue.
The main problem for the analysts is that they have no idea how consumers are going to react. The New York Times and other Apple fanboys have been very vocal about how well the gear will sell.
Regular consumers however might do the unthinkable and look at what is under the bonnet of the beast. In which case they might question why they need a giant iPod Touch. They might like to look at why it is a poor ebook reader, can’t make a phone call, and is an underpowered netbook at twice the price of anything comparable in the market.
Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley in New York said that a lot of potential consumers are still questioning what it may be used for.
Shaw Wu, an analyst at Kaufman Bros. in San Francisco said that while focus groups and market studies are trying to predict demand, the reality is you don’t really know until you know.
Analysts are also coming up with some wild figures about how many of the gizmos that Apple will flog in the next year. Figures range from six million, according to Goldman Sachs and five million from Barclays Capital. To Kaufman Bros 2 million to 2.5 million.
You know that something is wrong when analysts claim that technology is innovative and “history changing” when it isn’t. All this fanboy driven enthusiasm is based on hype. The iPad is the most hyped technology product we have seen for some time. It is also the most disappointing.
Our prediction is that initial sales of the iPad will be OKish, probably on a par with the iPhone. The first wave will be those who are fans anyway. However the real sticking point for Apple will be when punters get the gear home and when the reviews come out. A month or so after the first adopters realise that they can’t think of a use for the lemon they have bought.
Then Steve Jobs will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat if he wants to convince people that the iPad is going to be a long term success.
We are hoping that the bubble will be burst and people will see the pro-Apple press and analysts left with egg on their faces. We want to see so-called tech reporters hauled over the coals in their editor’s office for writing Apple press releases for months along with the soothsaying analysts who predicted success when they should have been saying beware the ides of April.