The election is looming: tomorrow, the 6th of May, the whole wide world will vote for which party will lead it into a utopian political paradise in what is the most important moment in politics for anyone who has ever lived. Forget Obama and move on: we’re living in Cleggmania, Gordon and Cameron intensely and desperately battling it out on heated television debates to win the respect and affection of the public. Gil Scott-Heron said that the revolution won’t be televised, but he was wrong. This is the revolution. Right now.
At the moment, predicting who’s going to take what seats is pure speculation. Fortunately, we’ve exclusively got the latest in from Christian Howes at Webtrends with a set of social media analytics to tell us who and what you, the people, have been talking about. He has monitored all mainstream media for us, including BBC Online, The Times Online and Sky News, as well as social media channels like Twitter and Facebook, and finally just about every single blog ever and all of their interconnections to give us a good glimpse of where the election might be headed tomorrow.
As we have mentioned before here and here, monitoring mentions of contenders, for example on Big Brother or Strictly Come Dancing, often yields a pretty accurate result as to who’s on top. And as this is the most X-Factorish election the British public has ever seen, it may carry extra weight. It’s worth pointing out that, of course, none of this is gospel but it provides interesting insight into party popularity. Keep in mind that Gordon Brown’s bigotgate gaffe trended on Twitter within minutes, so a lot of the mentions will be about that.
Until now, Clegg’s lot have been the clear winner in positive social media mentions and overall mentions. Labour has slowly, slowly creeped up and has nipped past the Liberal Democrats to come out on top with 186 percent of mentions across all channels. Again, keep in mind Brown accidentally taunting a pensioner on record.
Webtrends says thatthe Liberal Democrats must not be written off. “Social media channels have been a real stronghold for the party where it held 45 percent of Facebook mentions and also Twitter with just under 38 percent of mentions referring to Nick Clegg,” Christian told TechEye. “During the last 24 hours however, the party is in third place across all channels at 155.5 percent.”
Throughout the whole campaign David Cameron and the Conservatives have done well by maintaining a solid, consistent level of activity, avoiding the spikes that come with positive or negative mentions, and overall came in second across all channels with a total of 157 percent of mentions. It has done well via the mainstream news channels – not that we reckon any of the nationals have an agenda or anything like that – and had plenty of positive mentions in blogs.
After all is said and done, mentions have broadly reflected sentiments expressed in the polls, Christian tells us. A hung parliament is a definite fear of Labour and the Conservatives, while the Lib Dems are embracing the idea. The social media channels reflect this as do the traditional polls.
Take a look for yourself – here are the specific channel analytics over the last 24 hours.
Facebook mentions only:
Mainstream media only:
Video site mentions: