Moore's Law celebrates 44th birthday today

Despite many claims that someone has come up with technology that will kill it,  Moore’s law is 44 today and still going strong.

On April 19, 1965 Gordon Moore published a four-page analysis of the integrated-circuit business, in which he correctly predicts that chip complexity will regularly double for the foreseeable future.

At the time was the chief of research and development for Fairchild Semiconductor, a seminal Silicon Valley startup. He later went on to co-found Intel.

Unlike many tech industry predictions Moore’s Law  turned out to be basically correct.  It became a mantra for those who felt that electronics had some evolutionary destiny.

Actually it evolved several times itself over the years.  In Moore’s orginal paper it referred to the number of transistors that could be cost-effectively produced on a single integrated circuit. He optimistically predicted that this number would double every year.

Later, he changed this to doubling every two years, which fits the long-term trend more closely and turned out to be correct.

The Core i7 chip inside today’s top-end laptops and desktops has 731 million transistors, more than twice as many transistors as the 291 million in the Core 2 Duo chips of two years ago.

Moore’s Law claims that the cost of computing power gets cut in half roughly every two years. When he wrote that in 1965 paper he correctly foresaw that one day  computers would some day be so common they’d be sold in department stores.