Trendforce believes that the DRAM market is an oligopoly and because of this DRAM manufacturers can stay profitable even though they’re continuing to make too many modules.
Avril Wu, a research director at Trendforce, said that demand and supply bit growth rates will be 23 percent and 25 percent respectively.
Average prices will drop and growth will depend on manufacturers shifting their production towards 20 nanometre processes.
SK Hynix and Micron will move to that process next year – Samsung is already producing modules based on that technology.
Wi said that DDR4 will replace DDR3 – that’s already happened in the server market but will shift to new PCs and notebooks next year.
China is attempting to become a player in the DRAM market but the “oligopoly” of Micron, SX Hynix and Samsung will let them maintain their grip on the market.