Chip sales will grow only 2.3 percent in 2011

The global chip market is expected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2011, according to one analyst, which contradicts far more optimistic outlooks by a number of others, according to the EETimes.

Semiconductor industry analyst Mike Cowan used a linear regression analysis statistical model, which utilises information from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group, to come to his conclusions. 

He predicts that chip sales for November 2010 will have come in at $25.566 billion, which will bump up fourth quarter revenue to $77.680 billion, which is up 15.4 percent on the fourth quarter of 2009 but down 1.6 percent on the third quarter of 2010.

The first quarter of 2011 is expected to see a drop of 3.2 percent in growth, bringing in $77.229 billion. This will be made up by a 3.6 percent growth in the second quarter to $77.963 billion. Far more positively, the third quarter is expected to jump 9.7 percent to $85.554 billion, but a major setback is on the cards for the final three months of the year, with a fall of 18.9 percent to $69.363 billion.

This puts total sales for 2011 at $308.108 billion, a rise of 2.3 percent on 2010’s figure, expected to come in at $301.305 billion. This is paltry growth in comparison to the leap from 2009 to 2010, which was 33.1 percent, but then 2009 was a very poor year for the industry, and indeed most industries except dole office workers, while 2010 is widely seen as the year of recovery.

Cowan expects these numbers to change as we enter 2011, but even if they do improve it looks unlikely that the double-digit growth that some analysts are suggesting will come to fruition.