Kingston Technology has predicted that NAND flash prices will continue to fall, leading to increased adoption of solid state drives.
According to Kingston exec Nathan Su, flash sales director at Kingston, the second half of next year will see solid state drives boom as the average price for 1GB of NAND flash memory drops to $1.
Su attributes the falling prices to a number of factors, writes Digitimes, with increased demand as hard disk drives are submerged in Thai floods leading to increased demand. Furthermore, a move to 19 nanometre processes should help bring down costs for the pricey memory.
This means that by around the third quarter of 2012 a threshold will be reached where SSDs are likely to begin to replace HDDs, according to Su.
Such a trend is what Intel is banking on with its Ultrabooks. It’s in line with Intel’s expectations that its ultra-thin laptops will begin to gain serious market share during 2012.
Price has been a problem with Ultrabooks though, and Intel is ploughing hundreds of millions into the form factor to duck under the ultra-high end.
Despite Kingston’s claims that the market will make a swift transition to flash memory, industry analysts are not quite convinced.
Malcolm Penn at Future Horizons says that the impact of NAND prices might not lead to the level of uptake Kingston believes.
“These short term transitions don’t have much impact, as there is no serious over investment in NAND flash which would lead to over capacity,” he told TechEye. “It is over capacity that would lead to price drops, but it is very hard to know what capacity will be like in a year’s time so it is unlikely there will be big changes.”