Not all adversaries are Hitler, writes Charles Glaser, speaking of China in an article for Foreign Affairs magazine called “Will China’s Rise Lead to War? Why Realism Does Not Mean Pessimism”.
Perhaps not Hitler. But China has proved itself time and time again to be undemocratic and oppressive, especially about any semblance of third-party truth discovery behind the cogs in the machine. Just recently the New York Times reports on Western journalists tracked and detained over in the legacy of Mao’s people’s paradise.
Undoubtedly, China is an economic powerhouse. It is gaining ground in controlling the ebb and flow of the world’s money every day, as it continues to push heaps of cash into research and development, foreign and domestic investment. Across the way is a country called Taiwan, which acts and operates as its own but China believes it has dominion over..
Taiwan has experienced high growth within its own economic bubble, spreading its reach globally with ties all over, but until fairly recently Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) and Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) has been cautious about the role Beijing plays in its island across the Strait.
Now rules are being relaxed and trade agreements are easing, making for less painful deals between the two, although they still have guns, planes and missiles pointed at each other from the coasts.
In terms of geopolitics, Taiwan has had the backing of the United States. But in Foreign Affairs magazine, Prof. Glaser argues that there’s no time like soon for the US to back out from commitments to the democratic island.
The rise and rise of China will be “the most important international relations story of the twenty-first Century,” Glaser argues, and that with military competition on the cards, the US may need to offer appeasement in its policy.
And that, says Glaser, could include dropping the small island of Taiwan into the hell of faux-Communist China.
Glaser’s argument is based on a paranoid forecast. He says: “A crisis over Taiwan could fairly easily escalate to nuclear war,” and that the States would “find itself under pressure to protect Taiwan against any sort of attack,” as quoted in the Taipei Times.
If a situation was to arise, the report authors say that although disagreeable, it’d be a better idea to back down than stick the boot in. If the US rubbished its commitments, it would “remove the most obvious and contentious flash point between the United States and China and smooth the way for better relations in the decades to come.”
That said, to pull out directly would make the US look weak. The easiest way to push Taiwan down the creek with no paddle towards oppression would be in a gradual Machiavellian sense, improving relations across both sides of the Strait before backing away gently, offering pawn pieces to reassure doubts over alliances such as, what Glaser calls countervailing, like bolstering troops.
China continues to rattle its sabre….