While Intel claims that its future is optimistic, IDC sees a grim fate with no tall dark strangers, money, or cards foretelling of passionate love affairs.
It is the second time that IDC has predicted grim warnings for PC sales, but April’s spectacular results for Intel suggested its soothsayers were more accurate.
Now IDC has predicted global PC unit shipments will grow 4.2 percent this year, which is even more gloomy than its forecast in February of 7.1 percent growth. It claims that there is a “slow patch” in the market.
Part of the problem, IDC insists, is that consumers are shifting some of their spending to tablet-style devices like the iPad. It is not alone in thinking this.
But Intel believes that PC unit shipments will grow 11 percent this year even in the unlikely event that tablets nick a third of laptop sales.
Chipzilla executives have been claiming that the “results will speak for themselves”.
Other tarot readers think IDC is wrong and Intel is seeing the future panning out the way it forecasts. One of the problems is that analysts, such as IDC, have been unable to spot how PC sales are doing in emerging markets.
Much of the sales that are propping up the PC market come from emerging markets and hardware sales come from small regional companies. These are harder for researchers to track.
IDC admits that emerging markets have swelled in importance and are growing but it is not enough to cope with the fact that everyone else is buying an iPad, apparently.
IDC does predict that unit growth worldwide should rebound next year and average 10 percent to 11 percent from 2012 through 2015.