For years Apple shares have grown on the basis that it will come up with new ideas and enter new markets. However the fear is that neither is happening.
Apple is about to release numbers, and there are fears that an earnings miss will really punish its shares. Numbers predicted will be a 20 percent fall, which is a drop similar to the one it suffered early this summer.
Part of the problem is that analysts have historically talked up Apple and they have been setting targets which are nearly impossible. Revenue estimates are close to $53 billion To make matters worse, Wall Street expects it to “beat its numbers”.
The Apple earnings this quarter will be based on two numbers. The first is sales of its flagship product, the iPhone. The second is China sales. Apple management has already said that Apple needs to have impressive Chinese sales to move overall revenue forward. In the July quarter (the one released just prior to the current release), Apple revenue in China rose 112 per cent to $13.2 billion, and was 27 per cent of the quarter’s total.
The iPhone 6S is a sticking point. It is widely seen as dated and already the hype is building for the iPhone 7. Apple managed to convince the world that it was selling well on its opening days by launching in China and the US at the same time to give the impression sales were up. Anyone with a calculator saw through that cunning plan.
China sales are expected to fall anyway due to the slowing economy which means Jobs’ Mob would have to make up sales by taking them away from rivals.
This is something less likely to happen on any great scale.
Apple is on the edge. In theory it should not be doing as well has it has. Other technology companies have been seeing revenue gains on the cloud while traditional smartphone and PC sales have slumped.
The company has been largely propped up by the hype it has received from its allies in the press. But without killer technology or sales, it is unlikely that the markets will continue